TPredictions
0xeaa68b060c1cf0630aa43748beb4cf6a01700a65
- Realised P&L
- $245.42
- Volume
- $176.4k
- Markets traded
- 213
- Open portfolio
- $179.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded213
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.785 | $78.50 | +$3.50 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · No | 0.620 | 0.635 | $63.50 | +$1.50 |
| Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.221 | 0.642 | $19.00 | +$12.47 |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $7B? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.117 | $11.75 | +$7.38 |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.242 | $4.84 | −$7.16 |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $5B? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.135 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.160 | $0.52 | −$0.46 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$54.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$107.30at 0.006Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$66.66at 0.002Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$42.49at 0.353Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
- +$35.28at 0.130Ledger IPO closing market cap above $4B?
- +$33.24at 0.052Will BNY (BK) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 05:32 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6? | BUY | 0.14 | $8.82 |
| 07-04 05:45 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $7.54 |
| 07-04 05:44 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $62.00 |
| 06-30 14:45 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 06-26 19:19 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.043 | $1.29 |
| 06-11 11:33 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.33 | $16.50 |
| 06-01 20:42 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.80 |
| 05-21 05:52 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.016 | $1.60 |
| 05-21 05:52 | Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.50 |
| 05-21 05:52 | Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.02 |
| 05-20 04:02 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? | SELL | 0.1 | $8.35 |
| 05-19 18:00 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.14 | $13.98 |
| 05-19 17:52 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.46 |
| 05-19 17:52 | Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.10 |
| 05-18 19:18 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.10 |