TPredictions
0xeaa68b060c1cf0630aa43748beb4cf6a01700a65
- Realised P&L
- $219.29
- Volume
- $181.8k
- Markets traded
- 218
- Open portfolio
- $425.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded218
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.49at 0.002Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$42.49at 0.353Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
- +$33.24at 0.052Will BNY (BK) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$29.57at 0.382Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$28.46at 0.060Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 08:31 | Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.09 |
| 09-17 02:07 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.488 | $195.20 |
| 09-15 17:46 | Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15? | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 09-06 04:23 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 07-05 05:32 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6? | BUY | 0.14 | $8.82 |
| 07-04 05:45 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $7.54 |
| 07-04 05:44 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $62.00 |
| 06-30 14:45 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 06-26 19:19 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.043 | $1.29 |
| 06-11 11:33 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.33 | $16.50 |
| 06-01 20:42 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.80 |
| 05-21 05:52 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.016 | $1.60 |
| 05-21 05:52 | Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.50 |
| 05-21 05:52 | Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.02 |
| 05-20 04:02 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? | SELL | 0.1 | $8.35 |