FATMAN
0xea837d5472f73559fcb68423e5444df247a05c8f
- Realised P&L
- $11.7k
- Volume
- $1.92M
- Markets traded
- 202
- Open portfolio
- $15.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded202
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? · No | 0.820 | 0.959 | $6.4k | +$927.28 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.865 | $3.5k | +$540.00 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? · No | 0.730 | 0.976 | $3.3k | +$822.84 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.720 | 0.970 | $1.4k | +$369.69 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.857 | 0.979 | $518.35 | +$64.42 |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.954 | $34.63 | +$3.41 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.275 | $1.38 | −$1.13 |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.664 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.8k |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.460Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
- +$4.8kat 0.757Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$4.5kat 0.651Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?
- +$2.5kat 0.228Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
- +$2.1kat 0.230Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 21:07 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 07-24 04:17 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.9k |
| 07-24 04:09 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $59.35 |
| 07-23 19:35 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $345.00 |
| 07-23 19:34 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | BUY | 0.6625413664 | $1.1k |
| 07-23 19:34 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | BUY | 0.5816597062 | $666.30 |
| 07-23 19:32 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6780882963 | $2.0k |
| 07-23 19:32 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.634637146 | $1.3k |
| 07-23 19:12 | Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $31.22 |
| 07-23 19:11 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $394.59 |
| 07-07 01:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $780.00 |
| 07-07 00:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.2k |
| 06-10 03:35 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.982 | $4.9k |
| 06-09 12:01 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL | 0.79 | $532.52 |
| 06-08 01:50 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL | 0.89 | $377.83 |