0xEA7008450464D71e9Cfb57Bb91908d88Bdc250d7-1722884028969
0xea7008450464d71e9cfb57bb91908d88bdc250d7
- Realised P&L
- $150.34
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $60.42
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.415 | $41.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.824 | 0.779 | $18.92 | −$1.08 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.50 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$168.67at 0.830Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$19.05at 0.840Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$10.00at 0.700Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$9.11at 0.420Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$6.06at 0.477Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 18:17 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.2503307621 | $5.00 |
| 09-06 18:17 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.4699999929 | $20.00 |
| 04-06 20:42 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.103 | $5.15 |
| 04-06 20:40 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.8239999934 | $20.00 |
| 03-09 14:24 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | SELL | 0.22 | $11.58 |
| 03-07 18:17 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $10.00 |
| 03-07 18:17 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | BUY | 0.9199999687 | $20.00 |
| 03-07 09:06 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.6022748 | $30.11 |
| 03-05 20:31 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.80 |
| 03-05 20:29 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | SELL | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 03-05 15:45 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | BUY | 0.27 | $6.75 |
| 03-04 20:37 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.42 | $21.00 |
| 03-04 20:35 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 03-04 15:22 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.839999999 | $100.00 |
| 03-04 10:38 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |