smarttradder
0xea2837f7e7c552a4e34045fa206f97ffc50f3a0b
- Realised P&L
- $-15.3k
- Volume
- $3.40M
- Markets traded
- 3,811
- Open portfolio
- $271.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,811
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.555 | $111.02 | −$55.01 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.805 | $80.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? · Yes | 0.464 | 0.435 | $45.47 | −$3.07 |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.170 | $26.35 | −$79.04 |
| Will Juventus win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.115 | $8.05 | −$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.210Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
- +$1.2kat 0.060Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025?
- +$950.87at 0.666Knicks vs. Kings
- +$947.69at 0.190US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$790.93at 0.340Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 06:55 | Will Ohio State Buckeyes win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | SELL | 0.0671727173 | $6.72 |
| 10-26 08:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET | SELL | 0.005 | $0.77 |
| 10-26 08:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET | BUY | 0.007 | $0.20 |
| 10-26 07:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3AM ET | SELL | 0.21 | $4.88 |
| 10-26 06:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2AM ET | SELL | 0.005 | $0.50 |
| 10-26 06:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2AM ET | SELL | 0.011 | $0.43 |
| 10-23 14:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | SELL | 0.06 | $1.08 |
| 10-22 04:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12AM ET | SELL | 0.34125 | $13.65 |
| 10-22 04:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12AM ET | BUY | 0.41 | $12.30 |
| 10-21 14:25 | Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 10-20 14:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10AM ET | BUY | 0.27 | $8.10 |
| 10-20 05:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1AM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 14:43 | Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | SELL | 0.34 | $34.00 |
| 10-18 11:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7AM ET | SELL | 0.04 | $2.39 |
| 10-18 11:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7AM ET | SELL | 0.08 | $1.20 |