stardustdream
0xe8dfca266e1a82ef24c1b2fce7796590ebeb41e1
- Realised P&L
- $205.83
- Volume
- $24.0k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $5.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$111.31at 0.971Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- +$77.17at 0.710Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026?
- +$22.69at 0.858Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?
- +$20.63at 0.983Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$14.07at 0.991Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 17:07 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $110.40 |
| 11-02 10:35 | Will Jio Platforms be the largest Indian company?; | SELL | 0.065 | $0.43 |
| 11-02 10:34 | Will Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company? | BUY | 0.89 | $129.21 |
| 11-02 01:08 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $483.50 |
| 11-01 23:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $24.00 |
| 11-01 19:26 | Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $48.00 |
| 11-01 19:26 | Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.959 | $47.95 |
| 11-01 19:24 | Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.957 | $47.85 |
| 11-01 13:37 | Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $124.20 |
| 11-01 09:58 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $42.36 |
| 11-01 00:25 | Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 11-01 00:23 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $96.40 |
| 11-01 00:21 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.967 | $483.72 |
| 11-01 00:19 | Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $8.10 |
| 10-31 21:37 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $30.69 |