0xE8C6C48e73811aEB5340998ca00662eb696Bf7F6-1783025466960
0xe8c6c48e73811aeb5340998ca00662eb696bf7f6
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $69.2k
- Markets traded
- 573
- Open portfolio
- $195.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded573
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? · No | 0.726 | 0.602 | $104.66 | −$21.66 |
| Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%? · No | 0.627 | 0.645 | $65.20 | +$1.82 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.276 | 0.103 | $25.49 | −$42.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.66at 0.402Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$145.95at 0.422Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$100.55at 0.151Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
- +$92.00at 0.190US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?
- +$88.49at 0.110Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 16:29 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.83 |
| 09-17 16:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.53 | $3.08 |
| 09-17 15:00 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-13 House election by 30%-35%? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 15:00 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-03 House election by 40%-45%? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 09-17 13:50 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | SELL | 0.1804219949 | $70.55 |
| 09-17 13:14 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.749 | $29.96 |
| 09-17 12:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | SELL | 0.351 | $8.77 |
| 09-17 12:55 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.259 | $10.36 |
| 09-17 12:36 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 09-17 12:23 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.1735311269 | $17.62 |
| 09-17 11:07 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | SELL | 0.302 | $23.86 |
| 09-17 08:46 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.45 | $42.75 |
| 09-17 08:44 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 09-17 08:12 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.2740736842 | $26.04 |
| 09-17 07:32 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | SELL | 0.217 | $24.95 |