ReneeCastaneda9762
0xe7edb35fc4edbb235bdb91fc3fc5c5d71a35ec87
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $152.3k
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $521.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.930 | $268.77 | +$34.68 |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.945 | $88.83 | +$7.05 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No | 0.660 | 0.760 | $79.80 | +$10.50 |
| Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? · No | 0.710 | 0.964 | $47.69 | +$12.55 |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.045 | $26.28 | −$73.00 |
| Rippling IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.050 | $8.50 | −$57.80 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 · Yes | 0.120 | 0.205 | $1.02 | +$0.42 |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.125 | $0.38 | −$0.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.180Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces
- +$653.37at 0.130Will RV There Yet? win Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$529.20at 0.550Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$340.29at 0.140Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-03-05?
- +$200.83at 0.350Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 9 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-24 04:39 | U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $234.09 |
| 04-21 09:15 | Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.68 | $10.20 |
| 04-21 09:05 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $61.77 |
| 04-21 09:03 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $66.12 |
| 04-21 09:02 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $79.17 |
| 04-21 04:43 | Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $136.01 |
| 04-21 04:28 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $21.75 |
| 04-21 04:27 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $111.36 |
| 04-12 14:57 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $21.63 |
| 04-12 01:28 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 04-12 00:29 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $158.26 |
| 04-12 00:28 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $463.30 |
| 04-11 17:55 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $29.88 |
| 04-11 09:50 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $133.98 |
| 04-11 09:18 | Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.80 |