Lironp2
0xe7e0fdb3be06b6a8102fc503d2a800212618c65b
- Realised P&L
- $-0.33
- Volume
- $73.09
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $6.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.785 | $2.62 | +$1.62 |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.405 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.205 | $1.02 | +$0.03 |
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.075 | $0.62 | −$0.38 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.576 | 0.160 | $0.28 | −$0.72 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.085 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.87at 0.347Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$1.35at 0.420Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$0.72at 0.580US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$0.65at 0.606Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
- +$0.22at 0.819Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 13:37 | Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 13:36 | Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 13:30 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 06-14 16:40 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8419993483 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 20:24 | Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 13:41 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 04-12 19:51 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 03-31 20:55 | Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.03 |
| 03-31 20:55 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 03-31 20:51 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 03-31 20:51 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 03-31 20:50 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 03-29 16:59 | Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 03-29 16:53 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 03-29 16:52 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |