PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Lironp2

0xe7e0fdb3be06b6a8102fc503d2a800212618c65b

Realised P&L
$-0.33
Volume
$73.09
Markets traded
23
Open portfolio
$6.03

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded23
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? · Yes0.3000.785$2.62+$1.62
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes0.3200.405$1.27+$0.27
Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes0.2000.205$1.02+$0.03
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes0.1200.075$0.62$0.38
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.5760.160$0.28$0.72
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3900.085$0.22$0.78
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? · No0.6100.000$0.00$1.00
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? · Yes0.2800.000$0.00$1.00
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 13:37Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?BUY0.29999982$1.00
07-31 13:36Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.32$1.00
07-31 13:30Natural Disaster in 2026?BUY0.2$1.00
06-14 16:40Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.8419993483$1.00
05-16 20:24Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?BUY0.6099998597$1.00
05-16 13:41Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.3899998479$1.00
04-12 19:51Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?BUY0.2699998542$1.00
03-31 20:55Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?SELL0.011$0.03
03-31 20:55US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.579999826$1.00
03-31 20:51US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?SELL0.002$0.01
03-31 20:51Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?BUY0.9299999907$1.00
03-31 20:50Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?BUY0.91$1.00
03-29 16:59Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?BUY0.3299997822$1.00
03-29 16:53Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?BUY0.889999911$1.00
03-29 16:52Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?BUY0.8699999913$1.00