ods777
0xe77b862cb6d2be1ea02a63e1d5cb7c8c5366baaf
- Realised P&L
- $2.1k
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $89.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar17.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.075 | $68.18 | −$31.82 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.015 | $14.34 | −$85.66 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.009 | $6.86 | −$23.14 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.682Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$646.16at 0.650Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$246.27at 0.670Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$219.45at 0.610Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31?
- +$142.67at 0.452Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-15 09:59 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.019508416 | $3.05 |
| 04-06 14:11 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2955577593 | $20.00 |
| 04-06 14:11 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0853096741 | $20.00 |
| 04-06 14:10 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.32 | $50.00 |
| 04-06 14:10 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2709864998 | $50.00 |
| 04-02 15:18 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $47.44 |
| 04-01 13:42 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $50.00 |
| 04-01 13:42 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.809999996 | $200.00 |
| 04-01 13:40 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.909999998 | $150.00 |
| 04-01 13:39 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $200.00 |
| 04-01 10:53 | Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0415276643 | $30.00 |
| 04-01 10:52 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.1081033126 | $100.00 |
| 04-01 10:52 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.109999999 | $100.00 |
| 04-01 09:14 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $300.00 |
| 04-01 09:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 2? | BUY | 0.6499999902 | $47.48 |