0xe760710c8edaffc72a42a91003115fd263839325
0xe760710c8edaffc72a42a91003115fd263839325
- Realised P&L
- $-36.38
- Volume
- $532.32
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $5.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.815 | $2.22 | +$0.72 |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by October 31? · No | 0.910 | 0.989 | $1.63 | +$0.13 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.940 | 0.962 | $1.53 | +$0.04 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.477 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.35 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.16at 0.950US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$0.99at 0.980Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
- +$0.36at 0.985Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$0.33at 0.756Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?
- +$0.32at 0.903LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 12:46 | Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by October 31? | BUY | 0.9099998059 | $1.50 |
| 10-05 23:04 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.839999832 | $2.80 |
| 10-05 08:34 | Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.50 |
| 10-02 14:28 | Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week? | BUY | 0.975 | $1.50 |
| 10-02 12:44 | Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.799 | $1.45 |
| 09-30 13:18 | Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9391860078 | $1.50 |
| 09-30 10:44 | NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? | SELL | 0.956 | $3.03 |
| 09-22 18:54 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5909999935 | $3.84 |
| 09-22 18:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $3.95 |
| 09-22 09:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8499999892 | $3.95 |
| 09-22 09:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.993 | $2.99 |
| 09-20 14:08 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9969996956 | $1.50 |
| 09-20 13:54 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | SELL | 0.935 | $1.68 |
| 09-16 22:19 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9929993546 | $1.50 |
| 09-16 21:14 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.9399999875 | $1.50 |