0xE74D96ab342f00bFb42cD3202c011F589EB10460-1771709627832
0xe74d96ab342f00bfb42cd3202c011f589eb10460
- Realised P&L
- $26.98
- Volume
- $530.73
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $47.46
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22? · Yes | 0.979 | 0.992 | $10.13 | +$0.13 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.925 | $9.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.132 | $6.38 | −$3.62 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.645 | $6.08 | +$1.08 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.990 | 0.992 | $5.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31? · No | 0.968 | 0.963 | $4.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.974 | $4.93 | −$0.07 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET · Up | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.25at 0.590Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$5.00at 0.719Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$4.70at 0.679Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$4.07at 0.550US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$3.30at 0.607Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 09:05 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22? | BUY | 0.9789999996 | $10.00 |
| 09-21 09:04 | Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9879999984 | $5.00 |
| 09-21 09:03 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.997 | $17.90 |
| 09-17 07:40 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.90 |
| 09-15 14:59 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31? | BUY | 0.9679999985 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 14:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9899998139 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 14:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.90 |
| 09-01 08:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | BUY | 0.9949999888 | $12.85 |
| 09-01 08:57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 08:54 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 14:01 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9759999995 | $14.70 |
| 08-04 12:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $14.70 |
| 07-30 06:57 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9449998526 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 06:53 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999945 | $6.73 |
| 07-28 12:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.0247903034 | $2.00 |