Intendant-Jean-Talon
0xe6a8c937ed99a5587f6f699833d4a25431a800c7
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $1.30M
- Markets traded
- 598
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded598
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.3kat 0.207Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?
- +$5.2kat 0.354Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
- +$4.2kat 0.465Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
- +$4.2kat 0.205Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?
- +$2.0kat 0.637Nothing Ever Happens: May
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 02:22 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.79 | $79.00 |
| 06-22 02:21 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 06-19 20:12 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $134.00 |
| 06-19 16:20 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.744 | $11.52 |
| 06-19 16:19 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.4215713163 | $59.02 |
| 06-19 16:17 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $63.20 |
| 06-18 21:04 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.85 | $170.00 |
| 06-18 19:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.36 | $14.40 |
| 06-18 19:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.56 | $167.42 |
| 06-18 19:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.14 | $200.41 |
| 06-18 15:30 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $108.99 |
| 06-18 13:01 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.51 | $71.40 |
| 06-17 13:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.39 | $15.60 |
| 06-17 13:45 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 06-17 13:44 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? | SELL | 0.987 | $98.69 |