rockandrolla
0xe6538b996e495877a3e557e0bf07388be82ee488
- Realised P&L
- $-43.60
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $115.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betmoar FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.760 | 0.785 | $78.00 | +$2.48 |
| Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.740 | 0.780 | $15.60 | +$0.80 |
| Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.570 | 0.520 | $10.92 | −$1.05 |
| Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.350 | $10.50 | −$12.90 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.308 | 0.028 | $0.46 | −$4.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.00at 0.500Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
- +$29.60at 0.630Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?
- +$17.08at 0.787Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$15.00at 0.900Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$8.40at 0.790Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 10:13 | Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 09-25 09:35 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $15.04 |
| 09-06 17:47 | Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.97 |
| 09-06 17:29 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.959 | $47.95 |
| 08-22 17:44 | Betmoar FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.76 | $75.51 |
| 08-06 13:54 | Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 08-06 13:28 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.72 |
| 07-26 16:33 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $2.64 |
| 07-07 09:59 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $78.00 |
| 06-04 16:28 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.308 | $5.04 |
| 04-13 07:26 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.79 | $134.30 |
| 04-13 07:21 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $151.20 |
| 04-08 09:09 | Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.82 | $49.20 |
| 04-08 08:58 | Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.977 | $49.34 |
| 04-01 18:09 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.8163472222 | $146.94 |