xtal01
0xe62282ab6ddec6d26ff2bbc80f8c86eae52cd080
- Realised P&L
- $5.65
- Volume
- $556.9k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $342.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.220 | 0.645 | $221.24 | +$145.78 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.830 | 0.925 | $98.97 | +$10.16 |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.079 | $18.87 | −$21.96 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · Yes | 0.019 | 0.008 | $2.74 | −$3.77 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes | 0.003 | 0.002 | $0.51 | −$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$164.16at 0.280Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
- +$116.48at 0.480Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$59.80at 0.740Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June?
- +$58.85at 0.743Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$58.13at 0.180US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-25 07:00 | Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.169886765 | $40.83 |
| 03-12 10:29 | Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates | BUY | 0.03 | $0.20 |
| 03-03 14:52 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%? | BUY | 0.09 | $3.69 |
| 03-03 14:52 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more? | BUY | 0.0379007317 | $1.55 |
| 03-03 14:50 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%? | BUY | 0.087516129 | $13.56 |
| 03-03 14:49 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more? | BUY | 0.0339216244 | $5.25 |
| 02-24 10:41 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999907 | $12.76 |
| 02-04 18:50 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.83 | $88.81 |
| 12-20 10:47 | Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9399999998 | $94.44 |
| 11-25 13:30 | Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition | BUY | 0.3281362269 | $40.37 |
| 11-24 11:25 | Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition | BUY | 0.28 | $21.14 |
| 10-19 16:12 | Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | BUY | 0.73 | $22.63 |
| 10-19 16:11 | Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? | BUY | 0.028 | $0.87 |
| 10-19 16:11 | Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? | BUY | 0.063 | $1.95 |
| 10-19 16:11 | Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? | BUY | 0.155 | $4.80 |