cobble
0xe5c2c7a709dd9ab1a43c8b6852a4e9eaa8d4cfb5
- Realised P&L
- $-11.5k
- Volume
- $2.45M
- Markets traded
- 573
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded573
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.181Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
- +$666.20at 0.075Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$470.27at 0.205Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
- +$465.30at 0.098Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
- +$272.53at 0.135Ethereum Up or Down - July 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 05:15 | Will Como win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.0117791411 | $16.00 |
| 09-14 05:15 | Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.0182563381 | $17.14 |
| 09-13 01:18 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1567278958 | $16.75 |
| 09-13 01:18 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1459333077 | $466.78 |
| 09-09 22:29 | Will Pakistan win? | BUY | 0.03 | $29.95 |
| 09-09 01:52 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-09-08? | BUY | 0.019 | $17.86 |
| 09-09 01:47 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-09-08? | BUY | 0.024 | $12.89 |
| 09-09 01:46 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-09-08? | BUY | 0.0260135771 | $38.32 |
| 08-30 07:50 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 3AM ET | BUY | 0.0437917774 | $36.41 |
| 08-30 07:49 | Solana Up or Down - August 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BUY | 0.0116555725 | $8.72 |
| 08-30 07:48 | Solana Up or Down - August 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BUY | 0.0111995472 | $18.50 |
| 08-30 07:47 | Solana Up or Down - August 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BUY | 0.0891823376 | $23.57 |
| 08-28 20:36 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.041336208 | $19.36 |
| 08-28 09:17 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.0744042138 | $13.74 |
| 08-27 22:18 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.05996834 | $119.94 |