Noahrichards98
0xe57ab8ec1bd537476c1986e9768fbbc2ec99e196
- Realised P&L
- $6.7k
- Volume
- $142.3k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $36.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No | 0.884 | 0.860 | $9.8k | −$277.61 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.945 | $9.3k | +$539.87 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.673 | 0.685 | $6.9k | +$117.49 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.485 | 0.920 | $6.0k | +$2.8k |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · No | 0.678 | 0.715 | $2.0k | +$102.88 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.626 | 0.475 | $1.3k | −$404.99 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · No | 0.840 | 0.855 | $1.1k | +$19.02 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · No | 0.525 | 0.475 | $352.79 | −$36.98 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-01? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.704Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
- +$1.1kat 0.718Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$1.0kat 0.677Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
- +$996.90at 0.693Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$852.95at 0.875Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 10:11 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.6799999999 | $1.7k |
| 09-08 10:10 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.5563360882 | $201.95 |
| 09-08 10:07 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $0.37 |
| 09-08 10:06 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.665 | $199.50 |
| 09-08 10:06 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.5194108108 | $76.87 |
| 09-08 10:05 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.5009382716 | $40.58 |
| 09-08 10:05 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $24.00 |
| 09-08 10:05 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 09-07 08:23 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $291.15 |
| 09-07 08:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9913835487 | $2.6k |
| 08-24 14:21 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.8839992256 | $9.7k |
| 08-16 14:35 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.8399999997 | $1.1k |
| 08-16 14:32 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $2.3k |
| 08-13 05:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.4k |
| 07-31 19:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.8524543096 | $2.9k |