0xe5371183Ff89E878D12f9038eF334c5B8E111EeB-1769683988245
0xe5371183ff89e878d12f9038ef334c5b8e111eeb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $152.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $253.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)21.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.174 | 0.190 | $137.93 | +$11.22 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.018 | $112.97 | −$377.03 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.285 | $2.19 | +$0.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.389US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.120US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$788.39at 0.620US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$399.27at 0.090US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$318.17at 0.282US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 08:33 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.1745506473 | $126.71 |
| 11-01 08:30 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0186019616 | $124.99 |
| 11-01 08:29 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $5.40 |
| 09-16 21:23 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2399999896 | $1.84 |
| 08-05 19:42 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $7.80 |
| 04-20 10:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0759041527 | $1000.00 |
| 04-20 10:04 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.0338431428 | $199.66 |
| 04-05 05:05 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | BUY | 0.3732077074 | $1.7k |
| 04-05 05:05 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | BUY | 0.2176955548 | $388.47 |
| 04-05 04:58 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $2.1k |
| 03-27 13:13 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1699999995 | $224.96 |
| 03-27 13:13 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.3k |
| 03-27 13:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0982309122 | $1.5k |
| 03-19 08:43 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0785188946 | $210.03 |
| 03-19 08:42 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0988604306 | $209.11 |