Stephanberger4
0xe4c9872792a26e308d9b7df05a465517f20c07fa
- Realised P&L
- $-1.04
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $35.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration73.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macron out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.020 | $26.32 | −$23.68 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.355 | $6.34 | +$1.34 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.006 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.040 | $0.63 | −$0.37 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes | 0.090 | 0.055 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.007 | $0.36 | −$0.64 |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
| Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026? · No | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 02:25 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.038 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 08:57 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 09:10 | Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 09:09 | Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026? | BUY | 0.0477516904 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 09:08 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 09:05 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 09:00 | Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.0095310713 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 08:59 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 08:56 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0209999998 | $1.00 |