JamesBaker8760
0xe4c56591cc2bc8d492139651ca9763103877dcb1
- Realised P&L
- $-749.40
- Volume
- $143.6k
- Markets traded
- 244
- Open portfolio
- $29.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded244
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI | 0.400 | 0.059 | $21.82 | −$127.38 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.995 | $3.98 | +$1.54 |
| Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.025 | $2.08 | −$35.39 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? · No | 0.330 | 0.947 | $0.95 | +$0.62 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.665 | $0.67 | +$0.27 |
| Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.034 | $0.03 | −$0.14 |
| Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.016 | $0.03 | −$0.09 |
| Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.011 | $0.01 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$475.89at 0.130Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
- +$390.16at 0.145Will Blue Prince win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$300.86at 0.510Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5
- +$102.20at 0.580Will Trump post "Donald Trump" on Truth Social this week?
- +$89.24at 0.850Up Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 19:23 | Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | SELL | 0.79 | $419.49 |
| 04-11 03:57 | Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.8 | $424.80 |
| 04-09 12:27 | Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $83.60 |
| 04-09 10:45 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.16 | $39.36 |
| 04-08 02:14 | Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $84.55 |
| 03-30 13:44 | Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April? | SELL | 0.71 | $403.28 |
| 03-30 03:06 | Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April? | BUY | 0.73 | $312.44 |
| 03-30 01:22 | Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April? | BUY | 0.72 | $100.80 |
| 03-26 03:16 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? | SELL | 0.903 | $551.73 |
| 03-25 07:24 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? | BUY | 0.879 | $537.07 |
| 03-24 04:53 | Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.59 | $640.74 |
| 03-23 05:06 | Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.66 | $716.76 |
| 03-21 20:15 | Will "Russia" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.21 | $61.11 |
| 03-21 18:34 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.142 | $36.21 |
| 03-21 18:33 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.142 | $78.67 |