Itsreallygonnahappen
0xe4bbf3348645a3192219ec81b5adebaf880a4a9a
- Realised P&L
- $319.67
- Volume
- $33.7k
- Markets traded
- 108
- Open portfolio
- $18.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded108
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.155 | $18.80 | −$30.92 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$597.22at 0.332Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$164.22at 0.725Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
- +$150.24at 0.510US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$121.70at 0.652Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
- +$108.57at 0.736Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-27 19:39 | Kurds declare independence from Iran? | SELL | 0.023 | $0.92 |
| 05-05 16:30 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | BUY | 0.9464508095 | $152.00 |
| 05-05 16:29 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.37 | $153.00 |
| 04-27 10:38 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | BUY | 0.8499999774 | $13.16 |
| 04-27 10:36 | Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | SELL | 0.992 | $13.16 |
| 04-21 19:58 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $170.66 |
| 04-19 08:28 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | SELL | 0.8030800187 | $137.70 |
| 04-19 08:28 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.805156519 | $51.44 |
| 04-12 06:12 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.5569999995 | $35.59 |
| 04-12 06:10 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.417 | $35.59 |
| 04-11 20:38 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.2989999938 | $25.52 |
| 04-11 20:37 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | SELL | 0.88 | $25.52 |
| 04-07 05:23 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $139.92 |
| 04-05 05:49 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.933 | $93.30 |
| 04-04 17:22 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9494020523 | $50.00 |