0xe4a24d60f5733d5a6a3bd10597d9d67328b74763
- Realised P&L
- $767.08
- Volume
- $57.4k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$759.96at 0.884Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$479.60at 0.872Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$109.31at 0.659Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
- +$82.28at 0.640US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$53.06at 0.759Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 07:16 | Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections? | BUY | 0.9 | $24.18 |
| 09-16 23:22 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $193.20 |
| 09-15 05:23 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.346 | $4.23 |
| 09-15 05:22 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.347 | $8.26 |
| 09-10 18:35 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.34 | $48.04 |
| 09-09 18:59 | LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.992649343 | $354.08 |
| 08-23 23:43 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.8899999999 | $683.98 |
| 08-21 17:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | BUY | 0.9816879429 | $452.32 |
| 08-21 03:48 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $85.52 |
| 08-21 03:45 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999987 | $76.45 |
| 08-21 03:44 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7903758515 | $867.93 |
| 08-19 00:28 | Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.0k |
| 08-18 21:09 | Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.58 |
| 08-18 01:08 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.769999998 | $248.51 |
| 08-18 01:08 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999987 | $120.92 |