0xe4a24d60f5733d5a6a3bd10597d9d67328b74763
0xe4a24d60f5733d5a6a3bd10597d9d67328b74763
- Realised P&L
- $810.10
- Volume
- $70.2k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $11.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$759.96at 0.884Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$479.60at 0.872Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$110.83at 0.659Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
- +$82.28at 0.640US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$53.06at 0.759Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 04:38 | Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9321929139 | $104.76 |
| 10-01 17:52 | Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections? | BUY | 0.9199999775 | $36.04 |
| 10-01 17:52 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6049999995 | $418.92 |
| 10-01 17:52 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.93 | $786.16 |
| 09-27 13:59 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.93 | $218.38 |
| 09-26 20:35 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5789999997 | $692.64 |
| 09-26 20:33 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5799999997 | $754.96 |
| 09-26 18:38 | Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.8599999985 | $67.24 |
| 09-26 07:16 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5739999998 | $807.21 |
| 09-26 06:10 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.93 | $312.48 |
| 09-25 19:28 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999999 | $2.4k |
| 09-25 19:28 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.9299999998 | $181.82 |
| 09-22 06:21 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999099 | $1.35 |
| 09-22 06:21 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999999 | $316.23 |
| 09-22 04:50 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.9299999998 | $50.08 |