0xe4a19083441c318196f87ecb7ad8994a8926b51f
0xe4a19083441c318196f87ecb7ad8994a8926b51f
- Realised P&L
- $142.55
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $8.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.053 | $8.36 | −$1.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$171.58at 0.178Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.58at 0.538Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?
- +$1.25at 0.344Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$0.83at 0.400Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$-0.42at 0.145Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 20:15 | Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.064 | $10.00 |
| 08-14 20:10 | Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0088332668 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 19:50 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs | BUY | 0.0279999733 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 21:37 | Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.64 |
| 07-10 19:13 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1699999963 | $35.48 |
| 05-23 20:22 | Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |
| 05-23 20:22 | Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 03:06 | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.13 |
| 05-14 19:59 | Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL | 0.73 | $1.87 |
| 05-14 19:59 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL | 0.77 | $2.29 |
| 05-13 20:56 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.0979999177 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 20:56 | Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 20:55 | Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 20:54 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.3354297694 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 20:49 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |