lavendertown
0xe47c77125edfc41d1a80261736b9abbcfd57642a
- Realised P&L
- $-29.9k
- Volume
- $3.08M
- Markets traded
- 1,233
- Open portfolio
- $733.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,233
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.929US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
- +$1.7kat 0.987US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
- +$1.1kat 0.764Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.750Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4?
- +$911.34at 0.721Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 09:22 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.039 | $97.54 |
| 09-07 09:22 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.02 |
| 09-07 09:21 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.993 | $4.99 |
| 09-07 09:21 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $4.76 |
| 09-07 09:21 | ByteDance IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $4.94 |
| 09-07 09:20 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.99 |
| 09-07 09:20 | Pacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.975 | $7.90 |
| 09-07 09:20 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.02 |
| 09-07 09:20 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.02 |
| 09-07 09:20 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.02 |
| 09-07 09:19 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.02 |
| 09-07 09:19 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.02 |
| 09-07 09:19 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.02 |
| 09-07 09:19 | Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 40 Gwei before 2027? | SELL | 0.941 | $5.82 |
| 09-07 09:19 | Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.02 |