0xE42b5f3C8EC8DC615cA8A073186D27B3934b8444-1768006366972
0xe42b5f3c8ec8dc615ca8a073186d27b3934b8444
- Realised P&L
- $-11.3k
- Volume
- $235.3k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.055 | $3.9k | −$7.9k |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? · No | 0.551 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.99 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.5kat 0.180Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$-2.6kat 0.185Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 13:57 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1371146105 | $7.2k |
| 05-04 13:57 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1799999997 | $565.35 |
| 04-05 22:12 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0720643935 | $788.01 |
| 04-05 21:45 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.07 | $466.90 |
| 03-30 08:29 | Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.551050065 | $1000.00 |
| 03-27 22:44 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.2592453617 | $4.0k |
| 03-27 22:44 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.128524207 | $4.0k |
| 03-27 22:44 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.0485136406 | $1000.00 |
| 03-20 07:51 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1731200865 | $2.0k |
| 03-01 08:27 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $12.8k |
| 02-28 08:10 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.0718096993 | $1.6k |
| 02-26 17:19 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1799999999 | $2.3k |
| 01-23 18:55 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.1899999999 | $2.0k |
| 01-23 18:35 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.1899999975 | $50.00 |
| 01-23 18:34 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.1899999994 | $200.00 |