Guderianlee
0xe4046da2098aaa162ceedfe5835640546cad10a4
- Realised P&L
- $-28.98
- Volume
- $20.0k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $311.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.805 | $70.01 | −$0.43 |
| Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.650 | $59.87 | −$10.13 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.925 | $59.45 | +$5.46 |
| Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.780 | $51.32 | +$1.32 |
| Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? · Yes | 0.277 | 0.336 | $36.34 | +$6.34 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.295 | $28.55 | −$1.45 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.045 | $4.50 | −$9.50 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.029 | $1.57 | −$4.43 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes | 0.415 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? · No | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.50 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.59at 0.270Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$62.61at 0.400Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
- +$60.69at 0.480Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$52.37at 0.790Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$46.52at 0.357Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 03:23 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8099999997 | $70.44 |
| 09-26 03:22 | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7599999987 | $70.00 |
| 09-26 03:22 | Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7599999964 | $50.00 |
| 09-26 03:21 | Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? | BUY | 0.2769999977 | $30.00 |
| 09-26 03:17 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.3099999986 | $30.00 |
| 09-20 16:00 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8999999965 | $130.00 |
| 06-15 10:11 | Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6814159156 | $20.00 |
| 06-15 10:05 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 06-15 10:04 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.994 | $57.81 |
| 05-11 01:51 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 04-14 01:20 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.14 |
| 04-12 05:48 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.239999953 | $3.47 |
| 04-08 00:10 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6899999995 | $15.00 |
| 04-08 00:01 | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | SELL | 0.993 | $18.44 |
| 04-07 23:52 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.0179999903 | $1.81 |