PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xe3f62167f3c95ed486ddc4dc76cfdf5f796932a4

Realised P&L
$127.70
Volume
$2.3k
Markets traded
171
Open portfolio
$94.88

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded171
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration54.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7000.835$15.50+$2.50
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? · Yes0.8230.915$6.68+$0.67
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat? · Yes0.9000.860$5.73$0.27
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? · Yes0.9300.967$4.16+$0.16
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.2800.825$2.95+$1.95
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.7500.935$2.49+$0.49
Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat? · Yes0.9250.961$2.08+$0.08
Will the Republican Party win the AL-06 House seat? · Yes0.9300.940$2.02+$0.02
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-06 House seat? · No0.9400.945$2.01+$0.01
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? · No0.7050.695$1.97$0.03
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat? · No0.9340.920$1.97$0.03
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? · Yes0.8400.745$1.77$0.23
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No0.8260.974$1.18+$0.18
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat? · No0.9300.996$1.07+$0.07
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat? · No0.9300.994$1.07+$0.07

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-10 00:38LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?BUY0.5399999568$1.00
08-03 19:41US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.4599997608$1.00
08-02 02:10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.7899995339$1.00
08-02 02:10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.78$1.00
08-01 21:25US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.91$1.00
08-01 20:49US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.92$1.00
08-01 20:48US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.91$1.00
08-01 20:46Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.7$1.00
08-01 20:40US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.91$1.00
08-01 20:40US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.9$1.00
08-01 16:40Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?BUY0.3699998631$1.00
08-01 16:31Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?BUY0.29999982$1.00
08-01 13:54Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.3459998228$1.00
07-02 20:26Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?BUY0.99$1.00
07-02 20:11Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?BUY0.99$1.00