Machaon
0xe3e4bded348f8608f322a598c19dbb3c42878d04
- Realised P&L
- $9.3k
- Volume
- $1.97M
- Markets traded
- 736
- Open portfolio
- $8.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded736
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.3kat 0.127Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$6.9kat 0.012Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$2.4kat 0.169Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$2.0kat 0.312Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $430B on January 31?
- +$1.7kat 0.036Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 14:26 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.0358026705 | $10.89 |
| 08-14 11:09 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $119.67 |
| 08-13 06:27 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $36.93 |
| 08-12 13:32 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $200.95 |
| 08-10 13:31 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.42 | $429.97 |
| 08-10 13:02 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.41 | $20.99 |
| 08-06 11:48 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.39 | $2.0k |
| 07-31 19:30 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.97 |
| 07-31 19:29 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.00 |
| 07-31 19:28 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 16:25 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.0248 | $1.24 |
| 07-31 16:25 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.72 |
| 07-31 15:54 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.048 | $12.17 |
| 07-30 13:24 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $76.90 |
| 07-30 13:24 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.085 | $51.00 |