PolyBot

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Traders

Machaon

0xe3e4bded348f8608f322a598c19dbb3c42878d04

Realised P&L
$9.3k
Volume
$1.97M
Markets traded
736
Open portfolio
$8.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded736
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration57.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.6520.645$2.6k$30.00
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · Yes0.3850.180$2.1k$2.4k
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.3210.542$1.4k+$553.25
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.1040.125$625.05+$104.86
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2370.163$325.00$149.99
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2290.162$242.25$101.75
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4600.385$192.50$37.50
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? · Yes0.3200.145$145.00$175.00
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? · Yes0.0250.014$140.01$108.21
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0500.064$127.00+$26.00
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0340.009$90.01$246.91
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1610.081$80.50$80.50
Discord IPO before 2027? · No0.3800.894$74.69+$42.96
Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? · Yes0.1040.034$34.00$70.00
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? · Yes0.1800.150$30.00$6.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-21 14:26Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.0358026705$10.89
08-14 11:09Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.14$119.67
08-13 06:27Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.2$36.93
08-12 13:32Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.26$200.95
08-10 13:31Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?BUY0.42$429.97
08-10 13:02Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?BUY0.41$20.99
08-06 11:48Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?BUY0.39$2.0k
07-31 19:30Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.002$0.97
07-31 19:29Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.002$4.00
07-31 19:28Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.002$6.00
07-31 16:25Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.0248$1.24
07-31 16:25Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.02$1.72
07-31 15:54Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.048$12.17
07-30 13:24Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.09$76.90
07-30 13:24Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.085$51.00