BabyKangroo
0xe3ae7670827d2100beee9223a9a38dd16bfa440e
- Realised P&L
- $64.5k
- Volume
- $2.48M
- Markets traded
- 137
- Open portfolio
- $61.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded137
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.661 | 0.961 | $31.9k | +$10.0k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.945 | $21.7k | +$2.6k |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.034 | $6.2k | +$2.3k |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.024 | $1.3k | +$581.16 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.025 | $229.50 | +$24.54 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.064 | $114.30 | +$12.60 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.004 | $25.93 | −$48.97 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.0k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$401.45 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.3kat 0.285Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
- +$11.8kat 0.164Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$5.5kat 0.911Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$4.9kat 0.921Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$4.7kat 0.923Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-09 22:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.939 | $3.8k |
| 03-09 22:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.939 | $11.3k |
| 03-07 12:28 | Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | SELL | 0.99 | $50.00 |
| 03-06 21:20 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.2k |
| 03-04 13:39 | Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.999 | $964.61 |
| 03-04 13:08 | Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.999 | $399.60 |
| 02-28 18:55 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.37 | $496.57 |
| 02-28 18:19 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.39 | $605.09 |
| 02-28 18:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $11.4k |
| 02-28 16:53 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.37865382 | $378.65 |
| 02-28 16:48 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.437 | $2.1k |
| 02-28 08:12 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.9686170196 | $1.3k |
| 02-18 21:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $9.0k |
| 02-13 15:55 | Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.911817375 | $729.45 |
| 02-06 20:51 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.013 | $115.34 |