0xe344ae83b761e2396fdc5bb1a78f3cd87b13232c
- Realised P&L
- $0.18
- Volume
- $85.81
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $18.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.915 | $16.29 | +$8.28 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.555 | $2.47 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.64at 0.229Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
- +$3.85at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.09at 0.820Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
- +$0.64at 0.745Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
- +$0.51at 0.797Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 10:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999946 | $2.49 |
| 09-13 04:36 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999137 | $2.21 |
| 08-29 08:31 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999944 | $2.54 |
| 08-02 02:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.62 |
| 08-01 06:13 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.75 |
| 07-31 10:11 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 20:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |
| 07-30 10:29 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-24 00:45 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | BUY | 0.2789999162 | $1.89 |
| 07-23 12:45 | Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 07-22 00:40 | Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%? | BUY | 0.41 | $3.28 |
| 07-21 12:40 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $8.01 |
| 07-21 00:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.8199999045 | $4.98 |
| 07-20 12:40 | Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%? | BUY | 0.7349999186 | $1.85 |