Ksong
0xe3233e46461383f2ee13e2090c87f6921953af14
- Realised P&L
- $-72.07
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $126.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.833 | 0.933 | $64.53 | +$6.95 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? · No | 0.740 | 0.850 | $45.25 | +$5.86 |
| Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.300 | $6.00 | +$0.20 |
| Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.285 | $5.70 | −$1.50 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.170 | $5.27 | +$0.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.65at 0.659Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
- +$7.53at 0.790Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$3.04at 0.110Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.327Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$2.03at 0.330Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 06:44 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.0377139299 | $11.36 |
| 07-15 06:44 | Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | SELL | 0.0442749411 | $5.64 |
| 05-31 20:47 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | BUY | 0.7399999955 | $39.39 |
| 05-27 18:57 | Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.8144816182 | $50.73 |
| 05-27 18:53 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.887 | $3.55 |
| 05-27 03:06 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.7937865169 | $7.06 |
| 05-27 03:03 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.8328902793 | $68.32 |
| 05-23 17:24 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2299999946 | $25.52 |
| 05-22 19:38 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.55 |
| 05-21 18:43 | Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.701 | $14.02 |
| 05-20 19:15 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.23 | $0.76 |
| 05-20 19:12 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.24 | $33.27 |
| 05-20 17:25 | Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.71 | $12.78 |
| 05-20 04:26 | Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.71 | $2.84 |
| 05-16 03:37 | Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.44 |