mysterystrangr
0xe30bfb6336b72ec888b077d7daa9b2a546a498cc
- Realised P&L
- $-0.03
- Volume
- $16.4k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $321.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.288 | 0.425 | $105.13 | +$33.79 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.033 | $79.19 | +$38.87 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.035 | $59.08 | −$0.83 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.055 | $27.50 | −$27.50 |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.193 | $22.76 | +$16.03 |
| Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.009 | $8.86 | −$30.60 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.043 | $8.70 | −$3.90 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.405 | 0.135 | $8.43 | −$16.83 |
| Christopher Luxon out by September 30? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.015 | $1.55 | −$23.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$172.84at 0.353Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?
- +$95.54at 0.040Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
- +$34.49at 0.470Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
- +$20.63at 0.046Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
- +$18.90at 0.487Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 06:00 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.11 | $21.30 |
| 09-14 12:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $40.40 |
| 09-13 00:39 | Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.29 | $60.13 |
| 09-13 00:37 | Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.28 | $11.20 |
| 08-14 06:09 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green? | SELL | 0.351 | $11.15 |
| 08-06 08:07 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.1824390244 | $7.48 |
| 08-03 10:17 | Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | BUY | 0.0309842907 | $15.74 |
| 08-01 04:20 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.4 | $32.78 |
| 07-31 09:49 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.31 | $19.13 |
| 07-29 11:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.61 |
| 07-25 03:43 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.2420282856 | $14.03 |
| 07-25 03:37 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.46 | $28.21 |
| 07-24 20:22 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.46 | $23.51 |
| 07-23 06:17 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.04 | $16.42 |
| 07-21 07:10 | Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | BUY | 0.0547587253 | $2.17 |