functionalityrefined
0xe2cabac0e438aa4bff3b45c346887b26c5fad71d
- Realised P&L
- $-14.97
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $16.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.740 | $15.54 | +$0.00 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027? · No | 0.260 | 0.260 | $1.09 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.92at 0.240Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
- +$10.71at 0.400Suns vs. Trail Blazers
- +$9.04at 0.410Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks
- +$7.22at 0.410Warriors vs. Spurs
- +$4.91at 0.250Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:33 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.19 | $4.08 |
| 09-13 04:58 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.36 |
| 08-31 11:14 | Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.77 |
| 08-26 15:52 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $7.98 |
| 08-25 22:31 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $12.18 |
| 08-24 20:02 | Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.53 | $11.13 |
| 08-24 04:59 | Will Helio Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? | SELL | 0.67 | $14.06 |
| 08-23 12:31 | Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | SELL | 0.35 | $1.08 |
| 08-22 23:16 | Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | BUY | 0.68 | $14.28 |
| 08-22 19:28 | Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? | SELL | 0.7 | $14.70 |
| 08-20 01:49 | Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.22 | $2.04 |
| 08-18 11:23 | Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $3.28 |
| 08-17 03:20 | Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.32 | $7.86 |
| 08-14 18:59 | Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.70 |
| 07-29 13:17 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.263 | $10.25 |