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0xe2c4d2e0bea577f4cd3e285d831209ca1cede9d6
- Realised P&L
- $-9.17
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $2.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.920 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? · No | 0.950 | 0.997 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Oval Invincibles win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? · No | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.66at 0.790Will Zelensky say "Russia" 10 or more times during his UN address?
- +$1.32at 0.820Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?
- +$1.08at 0.650Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?
- +$0.56at 0.640Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.27at 0.790Will Sam Altman say "GPT" 7+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 13:33 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $60.06 |
| 07-12 13:33 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $60.00 |
| 07-10 08:25 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $60.00 |
| 07-10 08:24 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9909999856 | $60.00 |
| 04-28 05:51 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $120.59 |
| 04-25 13:30 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.994 | $120.00 |
| 04-25 13:30 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $119.16 |
| 04-25 13:30 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.994 | $120.00 |
| 03-28 05:00 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.998 | $260.00 |
| 03-28 05:00 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $249.74 |
| 03-25 07:25 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.999 | $260.00 |
| 03-25 07:25 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.998 | $259.48 |
| 03-25 07:25 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.999 | $260.00 |
| 03-25 07:24 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $250.00 |
| 03-07 05:37 | Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.998 | $214.78 |