0xe2bf58ff41ba471e876e2cd0369f438d0f368d01
- Realised P&L
- $20.43
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $147.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.585 | $51.95 | −$17.32 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.201 | $48.08 | +$8.75 |
| Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.044 | $32.24 | −$15.10 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.065 | $15.28 | −$3.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.38at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
- +$5.79at 0.827Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-09-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 13:43 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0808516152 | $19.15 |
| 09-13 13:39 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1639999994 | $39.33 |
| 09-11 20:27 | Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0653457052 | $47.35 |
| 09-08 17:09 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.7799999939 | $69.27 |
| 09-08 17:02 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $71.97 |
| 09-06 20:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999956 | $31.70 |
| 09-04 17:30 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-09-04? | BUY | 0.8199999982 | $27.50 |