0xe291fb59a892e973b5166fe1036d7858155aeb91
0xe291fb59a892e973b5166fe1036d7858155aeb91
- Realised P&L
- $-1.22
- Volume
- $324.70
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $1.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.435 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.065 | $0.40 | −$1.79 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.210 | $0.31 | −$0.69 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? · No | 0.330 | 0.070 | $0.21 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.23at 0.260US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$6.17at 0.268Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?
- +$5.57at 0.288Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $162.50 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$4.19at 0.349Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 17?
- +$3.67at 0.379Will Trump say "Kamala" during remarks in New York?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 14:26 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 04:16 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:34 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 18:28 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:25 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:16 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 02:50 | Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:29 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:40 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:46 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 01:18 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:15 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:49 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 10:49 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 02:39 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $197 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |