Michaus
0xe184146a5f9756dc5046a6a1f64efaef5e3a920a
- Realised P&L
- $-101.40
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 117
- Open portfolio
- $193.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded117
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$306.11at 0.569Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score
- +$207.19at 0.260Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?
- +$14.20at 0.290Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
- +$10.47at 0.616Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?
- +$9.00at 0.550Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-19 15:10 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 04-19 15:07 | Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? | BUY | 0.8235924408 | $9.89 |
| 04-19 15:07 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.4299999931 | $10.00 |
| 04-19 15:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | SELL | 0.42 | $60.56 |
| 04-19 11:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.3299999967 | $45.18 |
| 04-19 10:59 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7447554321 | $50.00 |
| 04-19 10:45 | Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? | BUY | 0.6499999948 | $100.00 |
| 04-19 07:54 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? | BUY | 0.7 | $9.62 |
| 04-19 07:11 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.66 | $13.20 |
| 04-19 07:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | BUY | 0.56 | $16.21 |
| 04-19 07:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $9.94 |
| 04-19 06:50 | Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? | BUY | 0.077 | $12.67 |
| 04-18 17:22 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.026 | $1.04 |
| 04-18 17:22 | Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $1.24 |
| 04-18 16:56 | Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.015 | $1.05 |