PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

easierthanmanifold

0xe15140da748ca6f978db95bd9303389aa7c2a852

Realised P&L
$2.1k
Volume
$58.9k
Markets traded
184
Open portfolio
$4.3k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded184
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.8870.965$964.55+$77.67
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No0.8300.956$573.60+$75.60
Will James Parkin advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? · No0.9370.999$458.84+$28.08
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.2570.195$370.58$117.97
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.8370.935$280.50+$29.50
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.5970.815$252.03+$67.33
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.5300.770$230.99+$72.00
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.5420.740$170.01+$45.41
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · Yes0.7770.790$162.48+$2.74
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.5910.925$129.50+$46.70
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No0.7800.905$90.50+$12.50
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.4580.771$77.10+$31.34
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.5000.705$70.50+$20.50
Will Jessica Faircloth advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? · No0.9050.983$49.15+$3.88
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · No0.6900.745$45.06+$3.33

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-22 18:03Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?BUY0.78$156.00
07-08 18:01Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?BUY0.2425176234$4.82
07-08 17:50Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?BUY0.69$3.45
07-08 17:49Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?BUY0.69$8.66
07-08 17:33Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?BUY0.01989494$9.95
07-04 00:25Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.072$14.40
07-04 00:25Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.031$9.30
06-22 20:26Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election?BUY0.034$0.85
06-22 19:55Will James Parkin advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?BUY0.9373917422$465.42
06-22 19:49Will Jessica Faircloth advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?BUY0.91$22.76
06-22 19:44Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?BUY0.36$25.63
06-22 19:41Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?BUY0.62$9.68
06-11 16:13Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.71$24.20
06-11 04:10Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?BUY0.761$0.28
06-04 18:41Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?BUY0.65$45.89