easierthanmanifold
0xe15140da748ca6f978db95bd9303389aa7c2a852
- Realised P&L
- $2.1k
- Volume
- $58.9k
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$938.30at 0.056Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$255.78at 0.074Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
- +$198.00at 0.340Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$177.82at 0.341Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
- +$161.20at 0.194Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-22 18:03 | Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $156.00 |
| 07-08 18:01 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | BUY | 0.2425176234 | $4.82 |
| 07-08 17:50 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 07-08 17:49 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | BUY | 0.69 | $8.66 |
| 07-08 17:33 | Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? | BUY | 0.01989494 | $9.95 |
| 07-04 00:25 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.072 | $14.40 |
| 07-04 00:25 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.031 | $9.30 |
| 06-22 20:26 | Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.034 | $0.85 |
| 06-22 19:55 | Will James Parkin advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.9373917422 | $465.42 |
| 06-22 19:49 | Will Jessica Faircloth advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.91 | $22.76 |
| 06-22 19:44 | Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.36 | $25.63 |
| 06-22 19:41 | Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.62 | $9.68 |
| 06-11 16:13 | Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.71 | $24.20 |
| 06-11 04:10 | Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.761 | $0.28 |
| 06-04 18:41 | Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $45.89 |