0xe143f865Def2669800368a7B0579355195401dC6-1765725005946
0xe143f865def2669800368a7b0579355195401dc6
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $158.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.013 | $103.20 | −$671.54 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.021 | $33.39 | −$16.60 |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.051 | $14.80 | +$5.13 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.022 | $7.53 | −$22.47 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes | 0.515 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$460.00 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes | 0.636 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.00at 0.300Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$6.53at 0.230Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$5.00at 0.200Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$4.17at 0.120Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$-1.35at 0.955Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 16:23 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0329999966 | $9.67 |
| 07-19 22:00 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0574999554 | $1.20 |
| 01-15 09:39 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.054735819 | $50.00 |
| 01-15 09:35 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.51 | $34.00 |
| 01-15 09:35 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $16.52 |
| 01-12 23:37 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0563202595 | $25.00 |
| 01-11 21:00 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $15.00 |
| 01-07 17:19 | Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.1543166256 | $300.00 |
| 01-06 23:21 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | BUY | 0.5148514839 | $20.00 |
| 01-06 23:20 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | BUY | 0.6365625622 | $50.00 |
| 01-06 14:28 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 01-06 10:10 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0306932389 | $50.00 |
| 01-06 01:32 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.2999999925 | $20.00 |
| 01-06 01:30 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0879999925 | $10.00 |
| 01-06 01:29 | Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.1444350609 | $50.00 |