ChansonBalladee
0xe129500b77457e0c1556aab853bcf3be56b9c478
- Realised P&L
- $-26.77
- Volume
- $4.7k
- Markets traded
- 206
- Open portfolio
- $52.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded206
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.980 | $9.79 | +$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? · No | 0.925 | 0.935 | $9.35 | +$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.912 | $9.13 | −$0.47 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.830 | $8.30 | −$0.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.916 | $8.24 | −$0.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.958 | $7.66 | −$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.83 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.30at 0.921Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?
- +$4.00at 0.950Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$4.00at 0.950Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?
- +$4.00at 0.950Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?
- +$3.96at 0.901Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 19:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $8.37 |
| 10-31 18:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 10-31 18:09 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.00 |
| 10-31 18:09 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 10-25 10:11 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 10-22 18:29 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.956 | $9.56 |
| 10-19 16:34 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9491666667 | $11.39 |
| 10-18 17:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $11.83 |
| 10-17 17:31 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.99 |
| 10-17 17:31 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $11.99 |
| 10-17 17:30 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.99 |
| 10-13 05:32 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.90 |
| 10-12 16:33 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $10.12 |
| 10-10 16:18 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $10.56 |
| 10-08 22:59 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.781 | $5.47 |