0xE0C3C5Daa970D97a27d281049b67df1f8B6Be849-1780535273953
0xe0c3c5daa970d97a27d281049b67df1f8b6be849
- Realised P&L
- $32.47
- Volume
- $371.00
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $36.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.332 | 0.512 | $21.02 | +$7.40 |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.450 | $13.42 | +$1.49 |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.024 | $2.34 | −$7.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.48at 0.166Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-5.24at 0.052Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?
- +$-16.39at 0.400Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 22:27 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? | BUY | 0.4 | $11.93 |
| 06-14 23:42 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.3319999868 | $13.62 |
| 06-07 20:52 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1619999866 | $10.00 |
| 06-04 01:24 | Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 06-04 01:22 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | BUY | 0.1 | $9.74 |
| 06-04 01:13 | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.3899999854 | $16.00 |