chroniton
0xdf95e594b86cca0b4ba460bfcfdb4a2329e40b47
- Realised P&L
- $-0.62
- Volume
- $56.42
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $5.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.055 | $1.96 | −$3.04 |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.855 | $1.55 | +$0.55 |
| Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.972 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.269 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.61at 0.625Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$0.60at 0.627Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- +$0.21at 0.824Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 22:16 | Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 19:50 | Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.2479999425 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 00:28 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 19:59 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6174998394 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 18:39 | Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 22:26 | Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 22:17 | Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 22:17 | Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 22:16 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |