PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

chroniton

0xdf95e594b86cca0b4ba460bfcfdb4a2329e40b47

Realised P&L
$-0.62
Volume
$56.42
Markets traded
9
Open portfolio
$5.70

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded9
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.055$1.96−$3.04
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · Yes0.5500.855$1.55+$0.55
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes0.8900.972$1.09+$0.09
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? · Yes0.2480.269$1.08+$0.08
Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-10 22:16Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?BUY0.549999945$1.00
09-07 19:50Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?BUY0.2479999425$1.00
09-07 00:28Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.1399999787$5.00
07-09 19:59Will France win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.6174998394$1.00
06-22 18:39Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?BUY0.16$1.00
06-02 22:26Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.889999911$1.00
06-02 22:17Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?BUY0.3299997822$1.00
06-02 22:17Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?BUY0.8199999836$1.00
06-02 22:16Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?BUY0.6199998512$1.00