Mahnic
0xdf34a77fe9c5cd96c297f7744d53f9025412dc86
- Realised P&L
- $2.8k
- Volume
- $182.3k
- Markets traded
- 209
- Open portfolio
- $8.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded209
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.712Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
- +$1.1kat 0.599Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$805.37at 0.746Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$772.52at 0.717US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$585.83at 0.740US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:36 | Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 15? | BUY | 0.5813084112 | $9.33 |
| 11-01 18:32 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | BUY | 0.81999999 | $8.19 |
| 10-31 17:07 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | BUY | 0.2899999989 | $8.00 |
| 10-31 17:02 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | BUY | 0.2899999989 | $8.00 |
| 10-31 12:15 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4654405809 | $12.25 |
| 10-31 10:34 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.650434568 | $36.08 |
| 10-31 08:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999893 | $30.72 |
| 10-31 08:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.669999997 | $51.46 |
| 10-31 08:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.669999997 | $51.46 |
| 10-31 08:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.669999997 | $51.46 |
| 10-31 08:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6678987443 | $50.73 |
| 10-31 08:36 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6899999977 | $18.25 |
| 10-31 08:11 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | BUY | 0.3461538462 | $9.00 |
| 10-31 08:09 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $8.25 |
| 10-26 20:53 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1395596079 | $18.19 |