Mahnic
0xdf34a77fe9c5cd96c297f7744d53f9025412dc86
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $128.5k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $7.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.712Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
- +$1.1kat 0.599Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$805.37at 0.746Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$772.52at 0.717US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$585.83at 0.740US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 04:10 | Will Drake release a new album by September 30? | BUY | 0.8400054391 | $42.23 |
| 09-16 08:56 | Will Drake release a new album by September 30? | BUY | 0.724 | $115.84 |
| 09-16 08:48 | Will Drake release a new album by September 30? | BUY | 0.279 | $103.23 |
| 09-15 18:23 | Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6814054814 | $14.39 |
| 09-15 10:02 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999528 | $16.32 |
| 09-15 08:15 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $16.17 |
| 09-15 08:15 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $71.63 |
| 09-15 06:39 | Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | BUY | 0.6099999971 | $69.00 |
| 09-14 20:41 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $25.03 |
| 09-14 20:15 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999842 | $4.50 |
| 09-14 20:15 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8766071429 | $49.09 |
| 09-14 16:09 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.49 | $49.00 |
| 09-14 15:33 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8547648024 | $89.80 |
| 09-14 11:56 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999996 | $87.75 |
| 09-14 11:18 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999975 | $86.73 |