PolyBot

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Traders

Mahnic

0xdf34a77fe9c5cd96c297f7744d53f9025412dc86

Realised P&L
$2.8k
Volume
$182.3k
Markets traded
209
Open portfolio
$8.2k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded209
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9350.914$2.2k−$50.84
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6360.740$1.0k+$147.51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? · No0.7100.725$597.92+$12.72
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? · No0.7680.820$494.31+$31.12
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? · No0.6951.000$411.89+$125.28
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.4590.680$400.25+$129.91
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? · No0.5150.320$373.12−$227.89
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · No0.6330.655$351.99+$11.64
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No0.7100.745$347.59+$16.44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.4600.993$345.86+$185.67
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.6830.645$235.04−$13.75
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · No0.1910.175$227.43−$20.54
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · Yes0.3600.345$161.86−$7.08
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? · Yes0.3060.255$158.38−$31.87
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5250.421$141.00−$34.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 21:36Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 15?BUY0.5813084112$9.33
11-01 18:32Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?BUY0.81999999$8.19
10-31 17:07Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?BUY0.2899999989$8.00
10-31 17:02Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?BUY0.2899999989$8.00
10-31 12:15Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4654405809$12.25
10-31 10:34Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?BUY0.650434568$36.08
10-31 08:48US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.6699999893$30.72
10-31 08:48US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.669999997$51.46
10-31 08:48US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.669999997$51.46
10-31 08:47US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.669999997$51.46
10-31 08:47US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.6678987443$50.73
10-31 08:36US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?BUY0.6899999977$18.25
10-31 08:11Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?BUY0.3461538462$9.00
10-31 08:09Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?BUY0.3$8.25
10-26 20:53Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?BUY0.1395596079$18.19