PolyBot

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Traders

Mahnic

0xdf34a77fe9c5cd96c297f7744d53f9025412dc86

Realised P&L
$2.4k
Volume
$128.5k
Markets traded
116
Open portfolio
$7.4k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded116
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · Yes0.5270.355$1.4k$703.34
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? · No0.6720.855$1.3k+$280.02
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? · No0.7390.955$878.39+$198.73
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · No0.7190.880$687.66+$126.12
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8510.985$527.24+$71.53
Will Drake release a new album by December 31? · Yes0.5770.480$358.73$72.74
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.7500.966$289.64+$64.65
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7300.465$288.06$164.24
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No0.4420.855$273.66+$132.17
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.8110.675$260.06$52.34
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · Yes0.3700.270$246.72$91.47
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No0.3150.755$211.90+$123.58
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No0.3200.475$190.00+$62.00
Will Drake release a new album by September 30? · No0.7720.887$130.34+$16.93
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? · No0.7200.960$96.00+$24.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 04:10Will Drake release a new album by September 30?BUY0.8400054391$42.23
09-16 08:56Will Drake release a new album by September 30?BUY0.724$115.84
09-16 08:48Will Drake release a new album by September 30?BUY0.279$103.23
09-15 18:23Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?BUY0.6814054814$14.39
09-15 10:02Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9399999528$16.32
09-15 08:15Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.93$16.17
09-15 08:15Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9$71.63
09-15 06:39Will Drake release a new album by December 31?BUY0.6099999971$69.00
09-14 20:41Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?SELL0.84$25.03
09-14 20:15Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8899999842$4.50
09-14 20:15Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8766071429$49.09
09-14 16:09Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?BUY0.49$49.00
09-14 15:33Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8547648024$89.80
09-14 11:56Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8299999996$87.75
09-14 11:18Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8199999975$86.73