SPLPB
0xdf0e455ca4896232ba935a8176e5e8cfbb38c02b
- Realised P&L
- $-16.2k
- Volume
- $4.28M
- Markets traded
- 5,090
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,090
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.6kat 0.269Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$5.5kat 0.021Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$4.8kat 0.154Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$4.3kat 0.073Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$3.8kat 0.870Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 05:34 | Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30? | BUY | 0.11 | $0.55 |
| 11-01 19:20 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $531.02 |
| 11-01 10:50 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.20386618 | $83.79 |
| 11-01 10:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $46.15 |
| 11-01 06:35 | Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 11-01 04:05 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | SELL | 0.104326523 | $11.18 |
| 11-01 01:28 | Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.41 | $20.50 |
| 11-01 00:44 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.796 | $89.93 |
| 11-01 00:19 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.943 | $1.08 |
| 10-31 23:02 | Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.04 |
| 10-31 21:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.046 | $48.30 |
| 10-31 19:17 | Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.03 |
| 10-31 18:38 | Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? | BUY | 0.212 | $4.66 |
| 10-31 18:31 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $40.03 |
| 10-31 18:28 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0525123013 | $12.06 |