lorinclan
0xdef7a8b1d19e086f6e09d9583f3616cedeb8f638
- Realised P&L
- $31.40
- Volume
- $43.6k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $217.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.585 | $118.17 | +$17.17 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.500 | 0.415 | $83.83 | −$17.17 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.464 | $11.59 | −$11.91 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.930 | 0.935 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.973 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will United States win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.91at 0.952Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
- +$7.47at 0.984US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
- +$6.61at 0.976Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
- +$5.42at 0.996US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$1.18at 0.983Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 00:29 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $23.50 |
| 08-16 08:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August? | BUY | 0.99 | $32.67 |
| 07-29 22:09 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.20 |
| 07-06 22:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July? | BUY | 0.997 | $48.07 |
| 07-06 22:42 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.38 | $3.80 |
| 07-06 22:42 | Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 06-26 01:13 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.979999657 | $2.00 |
| 06-26 01:12 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.9299999814 | $2.00 |
| 06-26 01:10 | Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.60 |
| 06-26 01:09 | Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.50 |
| 06-26 01:09 | Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 01:08 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 01:08 | Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 01:08 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $2.00 |
| 06-26 01:07 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? | SELL | 0.993 | $43.23 |