bondsman
0xdef6f7b147246e2bab5422c7363cdebbfd54f69a
- Realised P&L
- $10.6k
- Volume
- $4.81M
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $127.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.982 | $75.9k | +$4.9k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.890 | 0.962 | $33.7k | +$2.5k |
| Plague pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.958 | 0.961 | $12.5k | +$37.04 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.058 | $3.1k | +$587.48 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.995 | $2.0k | +$169.00 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.115 | $230.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.024 | $168.11 | −$24.94 |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.842 | 0.833 | $47.42 | −$0.54 |
| Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.991 | $40.43 | +$9.82 |
| Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.5kat 0.991MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.961Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$1.1kat 0.876Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
- +$632.63at 0.989Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
- +$546.42at 0.997US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 12:58 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.044038653 | $11.23 |
| 10-06 12:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $260.00 |
| 10-06 12:40 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.975666457 | $29.3k |
| 10-06 04:38 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $235.00 |
| 10-06 04:38 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $94.00 |
| 10-06 03:35 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $194.58 |
| 10-06 01:18 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0421879767 | $43.20 |
| 10-05 17:40 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $0.61 |
| 10-05 17:40 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $76.80 |
| 10-05 17:34 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.05 |
| 10-04 22:54 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0485076181 | $257.98 |
| 08-25 20:59 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.364762514 | $951.91 |
| 08-25 20:22 | Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.36 | $3.2k |
| 08-25 20:19 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.36 | $3.60 |
| 08-25 20:19 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.4k |