StarcrestRunner
0xded3989152e9a24837269de22c8d14f8af86adfd
- Realised P&L
- $-851.74
- Volume
- $45.7k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $500.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? · No | 0.943 | 0.944 | $404.88 | +$0.18 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $43.13 | +$0.23 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes | 0.070 | 0.075 | $20.55 | +$1.37 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.900 | 0.895 | $17.18 | −$0.10 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.029 | $11.48 | −$2.01 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.030 | $3.47 | −$0.17 |
| Rockets vs. Kings · Rockets | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
| Nuggets vs. Celtics · Celtics | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Rockets vs. Nets · Nets | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Pistons vs. Lakers · Lakers | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
| Magic vs. Jazz · Jazz | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Magic vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Wizards vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Spurs vs. Thunder · Thunder | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Magic vs. Raptors · Magic | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.057Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?
- +$1.4kat 0.044Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$490.58at 0.034Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$477.40at 0.099Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$214.98at 0.070Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 16:28 | Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.984 | $286.01 |
| 09-18 11:15 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $13.81 |
| 01-15 09:26 | Heat vs. Bulls | SELL | 0.6684517854 | $77.50 |
| 01-08 12:07 | Mavericks vs. Jazz | BUY | 0.6899999978 | $80.00 |
| 01-08 12:06 | Heat vs. Bulls | BUY | 0.6899999978 | $80.00 |
| 01-08 12:05 | Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.5799999959 | $40.00 |
| 01-08 12:04 | Pacers vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.4 | $80.00 |
| 01-07 10:18 | Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | BUY | 0.699999993 | $20.00 |
| 01-07 10:17 | Suns vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.64 | $20.00 |
| 01-07 10:16 | Magic vs. Nets | BUY | 0.4799999952 | $20.00 |
| 01-07 10:15 | Pelicans vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 01-07 10:14 | Clippers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.669999995 | $20.00 |
| 01-07 10:13 | Wizards vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.8299999979 | $40.00 |
| 01-07 10:12 | Nuggets vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.7599999666 | $20.00 |
| 01-07 10:11 | Raptors vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.5599999966 | $60.00 |