opopopopop
0xded1a14e49c0166761a6ac5df63a254441506877
- Realised P&L
- $-3.8k
- Volume
- $122.1k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $25.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.760 | $15.4k | +$2.6k |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.788 | 0.860 | $5.0k | +$420.85 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.610 | $4.8k | +$783.61 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET · Up | 0.479 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? · No | 0.412 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$350.48at 0.969Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
- +$250.00at 0.670Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$175.62at 0.966Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$-423.66at 0.457Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$-702.77at 0.335Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 08:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.4794520461 | $25.00 |
| 09-02 08:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $25.00 |
| 09-02 08:24 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.0k |
| 09-02 08:21 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6299999987 | $150.00 |
| 09-02 08:19 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.0k |
| 09-02 08:17 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6176470189 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 08:13 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7899999999 | $700.00 |
| 09-02 08:10 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7899999999 | $2.0k |
| 09-02 08:10 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.62 | $2.0k |
| 09-02 08:10 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6099999985 | $125.00 |
| 09-02 08:07 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6099999997 | $400.00 |
| 09-02 08:05 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6093780685 | $1000.00 |
| 09-02 08:04 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5309194444 | $2.0k |
| 09-02 08:04 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4917871061 | $1000.00 |
| 09-02 08:04 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4898345337 | $1000.00 |