0xdece2e0acac7350c4e9161f6b0231db88fd22755
0xdece2e0acac7350c4e9161f6b0231db88fd22755
- Realised P&L
- $-2.73
- Volume
- $177.07
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $4.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.685 | 0.878 | $1.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.745 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.484 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.435 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.030 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.490 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?
- +$2.50at 0.450Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$2.13at 0.490Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$2.09at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 08:19 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 00:19 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 04:19 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:19 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:11 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 03:32 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.7909999842 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 05:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 20:58 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6849997911 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:22 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2909999252 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:53 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.498999755 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:10 | Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:55 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:55 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:43 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4509999797 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:35 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |