MispricedPaladin
0xde88d50d54236eeecfbe6e3b40d7c32544a9144c
- Realised P&L
- $-107.25
- Volume
- $132.2k
- Markets traded
- 259
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded259
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$548.73at 0.104Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
- +$536.94at 0.374Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
- +$488.27at 0.235Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?
- +$401.92at 0.196Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
- +$399.03at 0.965US government shutdown Saturday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:33 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $232.99 |
| 09-16 15:55 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 09-14 18:04 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $99.00 |
| 09-13 17:45 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $20.48 |
| 09-11 19:57 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $62.40 |
| 09-10 20:11 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $67.60 |
| 09-10 20:07 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $109.20 |
| 09-10 18:15 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 18:14 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.43 | $378.40 |
| 09-09 17:38 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.32 | $90.76 |
| 09-08 14:41 | Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.439 | $13.17 |
| 09-08 14:40 | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | SELL | 0.4735481326 | $54.01 |
| 09-05 15:07 | Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.005 | $4.10 |
| 09-04 21:09 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins? | BUY | 0.67 | $125.93 |
| 09-04 20:09 | Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $404.14 |