MispricedPaladin
0xde88d50d54236eeecfbe6e3b40d7c32544a9144c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $152.0k
- Markets traded
- 286
- Open portfolio
- $5.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded286
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$548.73at 0.104Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
- +$536.94at 0.374Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
- +$488.27at 0.235Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?
- +$399.03at 0.965US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$221.66at 0.650US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 01:14 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $106.40 |
| 11-01 19:28 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 14:04 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.1089999998 | $18.00 |
| 11-01 14:03 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 11-01 13:59 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.011 | $20.00 |
| 10-29 22:22 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $4.80 |
| 10-29 20:34 | Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.5782652043 | $200.00 |
| 10-29 20:33 | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.8739365584 | $907.80 |
| 10-29 20:32 | Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.5783228628 | $200.00 |
| 10-29 12:16 | Will Republicans win the Kansas Governor election and Democrats win the Kansas Senate election? | BUY | 0.2475267272 | $100.00 |
| 10-29 12:12 | Will Democrats sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? | BUY | 0.237388724 | $200.00 |
| 10-29 12:11 | Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? | SELL | 0.5155454146 | $223.12 |
| 10-28 17:32 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? | SELL | 0.018 | $6.57 |
| 10-28 17:26 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $174.00 |
| 10-28 17:25 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |