0xde6a40cc5a94462d335c7eb6bfe71f3d1d70ec4e
0xde6a40cc5a94462d335c7eb6bfe71f3d1d70ec4e
- Realised P&L
- $-196.92
- Volume
- $4.5k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $2.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.950 | $662.97 | +$62.97 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.910 | $641.55 | +$141.05 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · No | 0.917 | 0.945 | $546.13 | +$15.99 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.925 | $434.60 | +$40.16 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.900 | 0.905 | $331.83 | +$1.83 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.930 | $99.72 | +$11.75 |
| Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.315 | $70.30 | +$27.30 |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · No | 0.330 | 0.305 | $46.21 | −$3.73 |
| Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.095 | $32.54 | +$19.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.18at 0.913Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
- +$-0.57at 0.720Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
- +$-200.00at 0.800Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 17:24 | Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | BUY | 0.3296290674 | $49.94 |
| 10-13 15:51 | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | BUY | 0.17 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 15:45 | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31? | BUY | 0.0379535798 | $13.00 |
| 10-13 15:38 | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $13.00 |
| 10-13 15:38 | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $10.84 |
| 09-29 13:26 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.679 | $9.42 |
| 09-25 14:43 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $98.99 |
| 09-25 08:19 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $88.98 |
| 09-25 08:16 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $124.50 |
| 09-16 09:33 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $200.00 |
| 09-16 09:29 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.98 |
| 09-15 21:25 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.9 | $329.99 |
| 09-15 19:39 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $90.47 |
| 09-15 10:27 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $163.99 |
| 09-15 10:25 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8213072822 | $100.00 |